Early-stage Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Geospatial Analysis of Real Estate and Socio-demographics in New York City's MSA

COVID-19 has affected all aspects of global activity and has since reshaped and restructured society itself. In particular, real estate has experienced numerous changes in composition since March of 2020. This study examined the early effects of COVID-19 on New York City’s real estate market through a social equity lens. Real estate dynamics and socioeconomic characteristics in New York City’s metropolitan statistical area (MSA) were analyzed through geographically weighted regressions (GWRs) on the period following the outbreak in the United States. The results suggest that there was a preference towards lower-density neighborhoods in the face of the contact-dependent COVID-19 pandemic. It is also evident that the more socially vulnerable areas were negatively impacted the most, with education levels and public transportation dependence being key factors in driving vulnerability. This study’s contributions lie in the use of open-source real estate data as an effective metric for investigating social disparities in the face of an external shock. The work also supports the notion of social vulnerability being a driver of the negative and lasting effects of a disaster. Policymakers and urban planners ought to take socially vulnerable populations into consideration when addressing future disaster response and preparedness.