Designing Sustainable Power Grid Investment Plans for Economic Growth and Energy Security: A Case Study on Kenya

This paper presents a Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) model integrating sustainable economic growth and energy security for developing countries. By incorporating a linear relationship between electricity generation and GDP, the model optimizes electricity capacity expansion investments. Applied to Kenya, the model evaluates scenarios with varying renewable energy integration and economic objectives. Strategic renewable energy investments can reduce reliance on fossil fuels, decrease CO<inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$_{2}$</tex-math></inline-formula> emissions, and foster socioeconomic benefits. The model underscores the trade-offs between costs, emissions, and GDP growth. By incorporating GDP growth as a constraint, this approach offers a framework for policymakers to align energy investments with sustainable development goals. The study's insights can be adapted to other developing nations. Prioritizing renewable energy and considering GDP growth can lead to a more resilient and sustainable energy system. This research contributes to the energy literature by integrating economic growth considerations into generation expansion planning. Quantitative results show that CO<inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$_{2}$</tex-math></inline-formula> emissions can be reduced by up to 42% by shifting to renewable-focused investments, although this may increase total market costs by over 130% and reduce potential GDP growth by 17%, highlighting critical trade-offs for policymakers. The study's insights support formulating policies that foster economic stability, environmental sustainability, and energy security.