One Step Forward, Two Steps Back: Managing Uncertainties in Outcomes, Deliverables, and Means in Behavioral Intervention Development Projects

ABSTRACT We take an extended perspective on project success that includes post‐project outcomes as well as at‐end and during‐project success. To manage projects accordingly, we conceptualize three corresponding orders of uncertainty ( outcomes , deliverables , and means uncertainties ). We study 11 cases of behavioral intervention development (BID) projects to explore how managers handle each of the three orders of uncertainty to achieve post‐project success—fully, partially, or not at all. Our analysis suggests several key insights. The hierarchical nature of multi‐order uncertainty management implies that decreasing a higher‐order uncertainty (e.g., outcomes) increases the next‐lower order (e.g., deliverables). In the studied cases, reducing outcomes uncertainty tended to increase deliverables and means uncertainties —causing one step forward to seem like two steps backward. Thus, the sequence of uncertainty‐management activities matters, with post‐project success linked to reducing outcomes uncertainty before deliverables and means uncertainties . Violations of this sequencing were associated with uncertainty masking , a failure to acknowledge uncertainty that misdirected uncertainty‐management activities. Moreover, the uncertainty‐management activities must be timely, lest they become misaligned with other project activities. These findings elaborate the theorized relationships between uncertainty management and project success. We further outline how project managers can manage uncertainty by reframing outcomes, rescoping deliverables, and replanning means.