PROFITABILITY PREDICTION IN CAMBODIAN BANKING: AN INTERPRETABLE LOGISTIC REGRESSION APPROACH

Abstract This study investigates the determinants of bank profitability in Cambodia using logistic regression as a transparent baseline model. By analyzing a dataset of 633 bank-year observations (2010–2024), the model predicts whether banks report profit or loss and quantifies the influence of key financial drivers such as loans, deposits, non-performing loans (NPLs), and equity. Results show that profitability is primarily driven by loan activity, stable deposit funding, equity strength, and diversified income streams, while high provisions and interest expenses remain the main threats. The findings provide practical insights for bank managers, regulators, and investors and lay a foundation for future predictive modeling using advanced techniques.