An update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecast model AIFS

We present an update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecasting model AIFS Single with several key improvements. The model now incorporates physical consistency constraints through bounding layers, an updated training schedule, and an expanded set of variables. The physical constraints substantially improve precipitation forecasts and the new variables show a high level of skill. Upper-air headline scores also show improvement over the previous AIFS version. The AIFS has been fully operational at ECMWF since the 25th of February 2025.

Publication Details

Journal
ArXiv.org
Published
2025-09-23
Primary Topic
Diverse Scientific and Economic Studies
Type
article
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article

An update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecast model AIFS

ArXiv.org
Diverse Scientific and Economic Studies
article

An update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecast model AIFS

article en

Abstract

We present an update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecasting model AIFS Single with several key improvements. The model now incorporates physical consistency constraints through bounding layers, an updated training schedule, and an expanded set of variables. The physical constraints substantially improve precipitation forecasts and the new variables show a high level of skill. Upper-air headline scores also show improvement over the previous AIFS version. The AIFS has been fully operational at ECMWF since the 25th of February 2025.

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Diverse Scientific and Economic Studies
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An update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecast model AIFS · ArXiv.org (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS