Health, Demography, and Growth: Exploring the Drivers of Life Expectancy in Afghanistan

This study investigates the determinants of life expectancy in Afghanistan using annual time-series data from 1999 to 2022. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework, the analysis examines both short- and long-run effects of fertility rate, physician density, GDP growth, health expenditure, inflation, and urbanization on population health. The results reveal that higher fertility rates significantly reduce life expectancy, while physician availability and economic growth exert substantial positive impacts. Health expenditure, although critical in theory, shows an insignificant effect, underscoring concerns about the efficiency of resource allocation rather than volume. Inflation demonstrates a marginally positive association, potentially reflecting government investment responses. These findings emphasize the importance of healthcare accessibility, human capital development, and sustainable economic growth in improving population health outcomes. The study contributes to the literature on health economics in fragile states. It offers policy guidance for strengthening healthcare systems, enhancing fertility management, and promoting inclusive growth to extend life expectancy in Afghanistan.