Assessing the Impacts of Climate-Induced Natural Disasters on Tobacco Cultivation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate-induced natural disasters, yet research in Pakistan has largely focused on staple crops, leaving cash crops such as tobacco underexplored. Tobacco cultivation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), which accounts for over 70% of national output, plays a vital role in farmer livelihoods and government revenues but faces growing risks from floods, droughts, hailstorms, and unseasonal rainfall. This study employs a sequential mixed-methods design, integrating survey data from 400 tobacco farmers with 10 in-depth interviews from the Swabi district. Quantitative analysis used descriptive statistics, multiple regression, and Likert-scale measures to assess the impacts of disasters on yield, income, and farmer perceptions. Qualitative interviews with farmers, agricultural officers, and farmer association representatives were thematically analyzed to contextualize statistical trends. Regression results revealed that droughts (β = –0.425, p < 0.001) and floods (β = –0.312, p < 0.001) exert the strongest negative impacts on yield, followed by hailstorms (β = –0.281, p < 0.01) and unseasonal rainfall (β = –0.198, p < 0.01). Socio-economic factors moderated these effects: education (β = 0.214, p < 0.01), farm size (β = 0.176, p < 0.01), and access to credit (β = 0.289, p < 0.001) enhanced resilience. Likert-scale results indicated strong farmer awareness of disaster risks but widespread dissatisfaction with institutional support, particularly crop insurance and disaster relief. Qualitative findings showed that coping strategies were largely reactive borrowing, livestock sales, and off-farm income, with limited diversification due to tobacco’s profitability. Farmers emphasized structural constraints such as small landholdings, financial exclusion, and policy neglect. Tobacco cultivation in KPK is increasingly unsustainable under climate variability, with disasters exacerbating entrenched vulnerabilities.