Rogue Waves and Ship Vulnerability: Revisiting Maritime Safety Standards in a Changing Climate

ABSTRACT Rogue waves—gigantic, capricious ocean waves commonly taller than twice the elevation of nearby seas—represent a critical threat to naval safety. Traditionally discredited as sea myths, these record-breaking events are, today, known to be real and common occurrences with ruinous effects on ships and offshore structures. Maritime disasters in the past, including the unexplained loss of MS München (1978) and the loss of MV Derbyshire (1980), are largely blamed on rogue waves. Recent events, such as the 2022 Antarctic cruise disaster, identify that new engineering innovations are not sufficient by themselves to eradicate vulnerability. Global climate change provides additional complexity to this problem through the heightened strength of atmospheric wind cycles and changes in ocean currents, thus increasing the likelihood of generating extreme waves. This piece revisits rogue wave science and reviews their creation, occurrence, and destructive capacity. It delves into case studies, surveys climate-influenced risk factors, and reviews the sufficiency of current International Maritime Organization (IMO) safety regulations. It also identifies the promise of artificial intelligence (AI)-led forecasting, which can offer valuable minutes of advance warning. The paper contends that maritime safety standards need to evolve by incorporating predictive technologies, climate-based ship design, and real-time monitoring systems. Ultimately, an interdisciplinary framework—merging oceanography, climate science, naval architecture, and AI—provides the best route for mitigating maritime vulnerability in an increasingly dynamic ocean. Keywords: Rogue Waves; Maritime Safety; Climate Change; Ocean Engineering; Ship Design; Artificial Intelligence; Early Warning Systems.