Global risks as a driver of transformational shifts in insurance market development models

Relevance of the study. The growing scale, complexity, and interdependence of global risks are reshaping the institutional architecture of modern financial markets. The insurance sector, as a core component of risk management infrastructure, is increasingly exposed to external shocks, including pandemics, climate–related events, geopolitical disruptions, inflationary pressures, and technological uncertainty. These challenges necessitate a revision of traditional models of underwriting, reinsurance, pricing, and macroprudential regulation. Of particular concern is the persistent «protection gap» – the chronic lag between the growth of insured exposures and the actual coverage available, especially under conditions of accelerated urbanization, climate change, and social vulnerability.Purpose of the study is to examine the nature and dynamics of the transformation of the insurance market under the influence of global shocks, with a focus on insurance premium trends, adaptation mechanisms, and the evolving institutional role of insurance in conditions of systemic uncertainty.Methodology. The study adopts a systemic approach to analyzing the economic and institutional transformation of the insurance sector. It applies actuarial analysis, elements of system dynamics, comparative analysis of insurance cycles, and factor–based interpretation of pricing shifts. The theoretical framework is grounded in systemic risk theory and models of cyclical behavior in insurance markets.Research results. The findings demonstrate that global risks not only destabilize the functioning of the insurance market but also act as catalysts for its strategic renewal. The study identifies key patterns in the transition from reactive to proactive risk management logic, driven by digital endogenization of loss signals, adaptive pricing mechanisms, and the emergence of strategic elasticity. Notably, the analysis reveals significant asymmetries in sectoral adaptation: segments with high digital readiness and solvent demand adapt rapidly, whereas climate microinsurance and small business protection remain highly vulnerable. The research ultimately substantiates the evolving role of insurance as a macro–financial institution capable of navigating complex risk environments.Conclusions. Global shocks exert a transformative influence on the logic and architecture of insurance sector operations, triggering both structural risks and institutional change. A successful transition toward strategic elasticity, digital technologies, scenario–based modeling, and ESG integration is essential to ensure market resilience under uncertainty. Future research should focus on modeling cumulative risks, measuring the protection gap, and exploring the role of insurance in sustaining financial stability amid multi–factor crises.