Redesign of public transit in low-demand areas, and integration with shared modes, based on travel preferences: A case study analysis in the province of Utrecht, the Netherlands

• a mesoscopic model extension for the aggregated four-step transport model is developed and illustrated, to model changes in travel behaviour as a result of straightened transit lines and the simultaneous integration of shared modes. • It is found that the mode share of micromobility in the first and last mile is approximately 15% across the different cases. • The highest usage of micromobility can be seen for people under the age of 25 and for distances greater than 1 km. • The main success factor for straightening lines is that through-passengers should significantly outnumber local passengers, by at least 75%-25%. • It is concluded that the additional costs of shared mobility for the transit agency are on average only 10% of the savings in operational costs. Offering shared mobility options at transit stops can potentially increase the service area of a stop and consequently, possible detours in transit lines can be eliminated to decrease in-vehicle travel times for through-passengers and reduce operational costs. However, current research mostly focusses on shared mobility options and expected behaviour only, whilst not looking at this integrated transit network design problem. Additionally, most focus of current studies is on the integration of shared mobility in urban areas and/or around train stations, leaving a gap on suburban areas and transit lines with lower demand. In order to answer our research question “what the effects are of increased route directness for low-demand transit lines in conjunction with offering shared mobility at transit stops”, we developed a mesoscopic model extension for the aggregated four-step transport model to model changes in travel behaviour as a result of straightened transit lines and the simultaneous integration of shared modes. Discrete choice models are used to accurately model first and last mile preferences of people, based on the access and egress distance, demographics and available (shared) modes. Finally, the probability of passengers cancelling their complete trip as a result of increased first and last mile distances is also explored. This model framework was applied to nine case studies in the Netherlands. The synthesis of the case studies resulted in key factors contributing to a promising redesign of the transit network. The main factor is that through-passengers should significantly outnumber local passengers, by at least 75%-25%. Additionally, the increase in access and egress times should not be significantly larger than in-vehicle time savings of through-passengers. Moreover, it is found that the mode share of micromobility in the first and last mile is approximately 15% across the different cases, whereby the highest usage can be seen for people under the age of 25 and for distances greater than 1 km. Finally, it is concluded that the additional costs of shared mobility are on average only 10% of the savings in operational costs.