Generation of threat: crediting football players for creating dangerous actions in an unbiased way

Abstract We introduce an innovative methodology to identify football players at the origin of threatening actions in a team. In our framework, a threat is defined as entering the opposing team’s danger area . We investigate the timing of threat events and ball touches of players, and capture their correlation using Hawkes processes. Our model-based approach allows us to evaluate a player’s ability to create danger both directly and through interactions with teammates. We define a new index, called Generation of Threat (GoT), that measures in an unbiased way the contribution of a player to threat generation. For illustration, we present a detailed analysis of Chelsea’s 2016–2017 season, with a standout performance from Eden Hazard. We are able to credit each player for his involvement in danger creation and determine the main circuits leading to threat. In the same spirit, we investigate the danger generation process of Stade Rennais in the 2021–2022 season. Furthermore, we establish a comprehensive ranking of Ligue 1 players based on their generated threat in the 2021–2022 season. Our analysis reveals surprising results, with players such as Jason Berthomier, Moses Simon and Frederic Guilbert among the top performers in the GoT rankings.