Research on Land-Use Conflicts and Risk Zoning in Shenyang, China, Based on Landscape Patterns

The identification and characterization of conflict spaces in land use are essential for risk assessment, early warning systems, and the scientific formulation of national spatial planning strategies. These efforts hold significant implications for achieving a balanced integration of regional ecological protection and socioeconomic development. Utilizing land-use data spanning from 2000 to 2020, this study focuses on Shenyang City as a case study and constructs a comprehensive measurement model for land-use conflicts (LUCs) from a landscape ecology perspective. The multiobjective programming-future land use simulation (FLUS) model is employed to simulate land-use evolution under multiple scenarios for the years 2025 and 2035. The results reveal several key findings: (1) High-value areas of LUCs in Shenyang City are predominantly located around urban districts, along the Liaohe River Basin, and within forested regions, whereas the urban core exhibits consistently low LUC values. The LUC value has exhibited a general downward trend over the last two decades. (2) Across various scenarios, land-use changes and spatial expansion patterns display similarities, yet distinct variations in ecological land protection and control are observed under the Ecological Protection and Planning Scenarios. (3) The land-use risk zones of Shenyang City are closely related to human activity intensity. The warning zone is concentrated in waters and areas experiencing extensive construction land expansion, necessitating enhanced ecological restoration and boundary control measures. The stability zone, characterized by construction land and cultivated land, prioritizes farmland protection. The control zone requires a balanced approach to managing construction land scale while ensuring ecological functions. (4) Land-use planning priorities vary across different scenarios. The Baseline Development Scenario necessitates maintaining an equilibrium between controlling construction land scale and preserving ecological functions. The Ecological Priority Scenario demands strengthened water ecological barrier functions, while the Planning Development Scenario requires stricter control over the expansion of rural construction land.