Projecting the Potential Distribution of Pinus Taiwanensis Under Climate Change Using Ensemble Modeling in Biomod2

The continuous rise in global atmospheric carbon dioxide has profoundly altered climate patterns and the spatiotemporal balance of hydrothermal conditions at regional scales. Understanding species’ responses to climatic factors is thus critical for biodiversity conservation. This study focuses on Pinus taiwanensis, analyzing changes in its suitable habitat using distribution data and environmental variables. Employing the biomod2 ensemble model, potential habitats were predicted under three climate scenarios (SSPs126, SSPs370, SSPs585) for the present, 2050, and 2090. Results show: (1) Model performance is excellent (AUC > 0.9, TSS > 0.8). (2) Temperature-related factors (isothermality, diurnal range) play dominant roles, followed by precipitation. (3) Future climate changes may lead to moderate habitat expansion. (4) The centroid of suitable habitat is projected to shift northeastward, with higher probability of a northwestward shift. (5) The SSPs585 scenario shows the greatest deviation from the current climate, with diurnal range as the least similar variable in 2050 and isothermality in 2090. In conclusion, climate change will reshape the potential distribution of Pinus taiwanensis, with habitat dynamics driven by the combined effects of dominant and secondary environmental factors.