Crude extracts of phytoplankton from the Valle de Bravo reservoir, Mexico, produce toxicity in embryos of Danio rerio

One of the main problems represented by climate change is the uncertainty of its impact on social structures, biotic and abiotic elements, biogeochemical and emerging processes, among others; one of the most important is the water cycle, this connection is fundamental to manage the future water supply in a integrated way in one of the most vulnerable areas in the center of the Mexican Republic, as is the case of the northwest of the State of Mexico; to identify it, a climate projection has been made to the year 2050, considering the representative concentration pathway 8. 5 (RCP) adjusted by the bias correction methodology, which shows us a possible variation in the average precipitation, since the estimated average for the dry season (115.98 mm) and rainy season (774.61) in the period 1991-2020; it would go to 48. 43 mm (dry season) and 282.70 mm (rainy season) for the period 2021-2050, as well as a temperature increase of 3.6°C for the same year, being the main contribution of this research, the behavior of surface water within the study area under these possible scenarios. However, we should mention, these results respond to a future assumption in which inaction prevails and the objectives of international instruments such as the Paris agreement and national ones such as the nationally determined contributions are not achieved.