Statistical Electromagnetics for EMC Risk Prediction: A Physics-Based Framework for Safety- Critical Systems

Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) is typically assessed through standardized emissions andimmunity tests that yield binary pass/fail outcomes. While such testing is essential fordemonstrating compliance, it does not quantify the reliability of system operation in realelectromagnetic environments. These environments are stochastic in nature, and devicesrespond nonlinearly near susceptibility thresholds, resulting in rare but consequential failureevents that may not be in scope for compliance testing.The intention of this paper is to extend EMC assurance from compliance evaluation toprobabilistic reliability prediction. A framework grounded in statistical electromagnetics ispresented that incorporates random field theory, coupling-path characterization, and nonlinearresponse modeling. The framework defines the Probability of EMC-Induced Hazard (PEMH), ametric that quantifies how frequently electromagnetic disturbances produce functional failuresthat can propagate into hazardous failures.By following a structured execution process, the framework provides quantitative reliability datain addition to compliance results. A case study on industrial safety control input demonstratesthat systems may satisfy regulatory standards yet still exhibit measurable failure probabilities.This approach reframes EMC from a conformity exercise into a predictive reliability discipline,directly supporting functional safety objectives.