Agriculture Sector Productivity and Human Development in Nigeria

ABSTRACT: The study examined the impact of the agriculture sector productivity on human development in Nigeria between 1981 and 2023. Human development was measured by the human development index (HDI), while the value of crop output (CPN), value of livestock output (LIP), and value of forestry output (FOP) were used to measure the agriculture sector. The annual time series were obtained from various reliable sources, comprising the CBN Statistical Bulletin (various issues), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank, and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Report. The datasets were analysed using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test of unit root and the bounds cointegration test, among others. The findings showed that livestock production in the short run had a significant negative impact on HDI. This result negates the a priori expectations and is against theoretical thought. The results also showed that crop output does not significantly affect HDI. On the other hand, the results showed that forestry output had a significant positive impact on HDI in the short run, which conforms to the a priori expectations. The error correction term has a coefficient value of -0.368173 and is appropriately signed, indicating that annually, the deviation from long-run equilibrium will be corrected at a speed of approximately 36.82%. Given the findings, this study concludes that agricultural output has not offered the intended opportunity for human development in Nigeria. Therefore, it is recommended for the government to synergise with the private sector to boost the level of forestry output and create opportunities for human development in Nigeria.