Polar Prestige: Russia's Grand Strategy in the Arctic

This paper analyzes Russia’s evolving grand strategy in the Arctic region following climate change-induced shifts in accessibility and the deteriorating security environment since 2022. Leveraging its vast Arctic geography, legacy infrastructure, and resource base, Russia pursues six strategic goals outlined in its 2020 Arctic Strategy: securing territorial sovereignty, promoting economic development, building the Northern Sea Route, improving quality of life, protecting the environment, and preserving indigenous rights. Through a framework of grand principles, plans, and behavior, the study assesses how Russia translates strategic intent into policy and action, critically examining the gap between rhetoric and reality in military modernization, demographic revitalization, and economic activities. The analysis demonstrates that while Russia holds multiple advantages over other Arctic states, challenges such as population decline, sanctions-driven isolation, and the economic and technological impact of the war in Ukraine strain its ambitions, increasing reliance on China as a strategic partner. The paper concludes that, despite setbacks, the Kremlin remains committed to Arctic development as integral to Russian great power status, though long-term sustainability is threatened by unresolved demographic, environmental, and governance issues