New Geography of Russian Oil Cargo Exports under Embargo and Price Ceiling Conditions

The article analyzes the current dynamics of maritime exports of Russian oil and petroleum products under the embargo and price ceiling imposed by unfriendly countries after the start of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine in February 2022. It is shown that the export of Russian oil cargoes proved resistant to sanctions pressure due to the reorientation to alternative markets and the active use of mechanisms to circumvent non-market restrictions of Western countries. Particular attention is paid to the changed geography of Russian oil cargo exports, which in record time were redirected from Western markets to the markets of China, India, and Turkey. The study examines in detail changes in the structure of tanker transportation of Russian oil and petroleum products after the introduction of the embargo and the tools for circumventing sanctions restrictions, including ship-to-ship (STS) transshipment of oil cargo and the use of a shadow fleet. The new economy of Russian oil exports under conditions of external restrictions and current trends in pricing of Russian oil on the world market are analyzed. The need to abandon the established rules for pricing Russian export oil and to switch to Russian price indicators, as well as Russian instruments for insuring bulk oil cargo, is demonstrated. The problem of forming an alternative financial and logistical circuit for trading Russian bulk oil cargo has been defined in the context of the regionalization of international trade that is currently taking place, caused by the growing influence of nonmarket sanctions restrictions.