Future Critical Habitat for the Roseate Spoonbill in Florida: A Probabilistic Habitat Suitability Model Based on County Population Growth and Existing Spoonbill Sightings

Historically, studies surrounding future conservation practices for the roseate spoonbill (Platalea ajaja) have been scarce, instead focusing on ecosystem/community based spatial analyses. The roseate spoonbill has long acted as both a flagship species for conservation and ecotourism and an indicator species of wetland health. However, the lack of focus on this species in research only aids in the disjointed classification of their vulnerability levels – the IUCN Red List labeling them as a species of least concern while the Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment describes them as highly vulnerable with the lowest capacity to adapt. An individualized assessment of the roseate spoonbill seems necessary to clarify the species vulnerability. This study therefore attempts to answer two questions: how high is the affinity of the roseate spoonbill to their mangrove habitats, and which areas of Florida should be the focus of future conservation efforts for this species? These questions were answered through the use of GIS. Roseate spoonbill sightings from 2013 to 2023 were intersected to the major wetland types (estuarine, lacustrine, palustrine, riverine, and marine), making sure to highlight the presence of these birds within both mangrove and salt marsh habitats. This information was cross-referenced over Florida counties with the highest percentage of population growth from 1990 to 2020, these counties being grouped into three categories (low, medium, and high). Research revealed that, overall, palustrine wetlands continue to have the highest habitat affinity for roseate spoonbills, but specific counties have unique variables that may require other wetland types to be prioritized.