A new method to assess the probability of lightning causing wildfires

This paper describes a method to calculate a new metric that evaluates the probability of lightning events causing wild-fires. The probability metric (Pm) is the product of a spatial (Ps) and a temporal (Pt) probability. While Ps assesses the probability of a lightning stroke having attached to a location within an area surrounding the fire discovery point, Pt as-sess the probability of a lightning-ignited wildfires (LIW) reaching a certain holdover time (i.e., the time between light-ning-induced fire ignition and fire detection). Pm can be used to select the most likely ignition source of LIWs.