A Review of Meta-Analyses and Theory on the Effects of Political Communication on Electoral Behavior and Polarization

The study of political communication has undergone exponential expansion, generating a vast body of literature with often divergent conclusions about citizen competence, susceptibility to elite influence, and the determinants of electoral behavior. This paper presents a systematic review and meta-analysis of key empirical research in this field, aiming to synthesize the accumulated evidence on the effects of framing, negative campaigning, candidate characteristics, and the rise of digital media. Through a critical analysis of the methodologies employed, from experimental designs to aggregate data analysis, the robustness and generalizability of the findings are evaluated. The results indicate that while the effects of political communication are real, their magnitude is often limited and highly contextual. For example, framing effects are moderate on attitudes but almost nil on behavior. Similarly, voter turnout responds consistently only to a small core of factors, while the impact of new digital media on affective polarization and youth participation reveals a complex interplay of variables that challenges simplistic narratives. It is concluded that the ability of elites to manipulate popular preferences is constrained, suggesting a more competent electorate than is often posited, although significant methodological and geographical gaps persist in the literature that require future attention.