ENERGY RISKS ASSESSMENT AND RESILIENT STRATEGIES DEVELOPMENT CONSIDERING THE WAR IN UKRAINE

Abstract This article analyses the risks to energy supply during the war in Ukraine for developing diversification strategies under extreme conditions. The analysis focuses on the challenges, including infrastructure damage, power capacity destruction, supply chain disruptions, and the volatility of conventional energy options as grid power and fossil fuels. The risks to energy security were analysed using the PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal factors) framework, structured under risk definition, risk evaluation, and risk mitigation for each factor. By diversifying energy sources, improving renewable energy, decentralising control through microgrids, investing in energy storage, hardening infrastructure, enhancing energy efficiency, prioritising cybersecurity, and fostering community resilience, countries can better protect their citizens from the impacts of energy disruptions. A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach was used to calculate a comparative assessment of technical energy supply solutions. Three types of scenarios for the development of Ukraine's energy security were developed based on risk assessment, analysis of energy resilience strategies, and a review of successful technical solutions for energy supply in crisis conditions. Ukraine’s experience could be helpful for energy strategies of other countries facing increasing threats of war, aggression, terrorist attacks, and climate change.