Modeling Climate Change and Its Impact on Migration Intentions: Mediation Through Sociocultural Impact in Gandaki Province, Nepal

Background and objective: Climate change presents significant challenges for vulnerable regions, causing migration to be a coping strategy. Adaptation practices play a crucial role in shaping migration decisions in developing countries like Nepal, where communities are increasingly vulnerable to climate-related hazards. This study examines the relationship among the impacts of climate change, adaptation strategies, and migration intentions, highlighting the mediating role of sociocultural factors.Methods: Data were gathered through a structured questionnaire from 493 residents across four districts—Baglung, Myagdi, Mustang, and Lamjung—in Gandaki Province. To analyze the complex relationships among the impacts of climate change, adaptation measures, sociocultural influences, and migration intentions, Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was employed.Results: The findings show that climate change impacts, including agricultural decline, biodiversity loss, and the spread of invasive species, greatly affect migration intentions. Adaptation strategies like livestock and crop insurance, changing planting schedules, and improving livestock breeds are essential in influencing migration choices. Additionally, sociocultural factors play a significant mediating role. Positive sociocultural effects strengthen the link between adaptation and migration intention, while negative sociocultural factors influence the connection between climate change impacts and migration intention. This dual impact suggests that the benefits and challenges of migration shape people's decisions to move.Conclusion: The study emphasizes the importance of targeted policies that support sustainable adaptation while accounting for the sociocultural effects of migration. It provides valuable insights into how climate-related stress and social dynamics interact to influence migration in ecologically vulnerable regions.