Corporate biodiversity risk exposure and performance aspiration deficit

The gradual erosion of biodiversity has become a systemic global concern, yet its financial implications within organizational frameworks remain at a nascent stage of recognition. Drawing on natural capital theory, this study develops a moderated mediation framework to examine how corporate biodiversity risk exposure influences performance dynamics. Using a mixed-effects regression model on dynamic panel data from 973 Chinese listed firms between 2011 and 2022, the analysis shows that biodiversity risk exposure is positively associated with performance aspiration deficits. Mediation tests reveal that this relationship is primarily transmitted through supply chain concentration, while the moderating role of Industry 4.0 technologies weakens this pathway. Robustness checks addressing potential endogeneity confirm the stability of the results. Heterogeneity analyses further demonstrate systematic variation across firms with different governance and structural profiles. These findings advance understanding of biodiversity as a financial risk factor and underscore the importance of integrating ecological considerations into investment screening and financial stability assessments.