Deterring Gray Zone Activity in a Strategic Flashpoint: U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operations and China’s Maritime Militias

In today’s complex world, nations often use irregular forces, such as militias, to achieve political goals without escalating conflicts. This study examines how the United States of America uses its Navy’s Freedom of Navigation Operations in the South China Sea to influence the behavior of Chinese maritime militias. These militias are involved in activities such as harassment, assault, and other aggressive or deceptive actions. By analyzing data from 2012 to 2024, this research discovered 239 incidents and discovers that these militias reduce their confrontational activities during Freedom of Navigation Operations to avoid direct conflict while continuing their broader objectives in the region. This research is critical because the South China Sea is a hotspot for international tension and competition. Understanding how maritime militias operate and respond to U.S. naval actions offers valuable insights for policymakers. The findings can help governments develop strategies to reduce risks, strengthen their defenses, and prevent future conflicts. By shedding light on this issue, the study contributes to global efforts to maintain peace and stability in one of the world’s most contested regions.