ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL VARIABILITY, CHANGE, AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES; A CASE OF ANALEMO WOREDA, HADIYA ZONE, SNNPR, ETHIOPIA

ABSTRACT Even though the livelihood of the people is based on rain-fed agriculture and continuously affected by frequent drought episodes, there is no as such detail studies conducted and little is known. The overall objective of the study is to analyze Rainfall variability and change and adaptation strategies in Analemo Woreda, Hadiya Zone, Ethiopia. To achieve these objectives one shot cross-sectional research method with multi-stage sampling techniques were employed. In this regard the study Woreda was selected purposively based on its drought proneness, considering it vulnerability and presence of meteorology station. Finally 124 respondents were selected using simple random sampling techniques from their original list considering Probability Proportion to Size (PPS) of each kebeles. Primary data were collected using household survey, focus group discussion, key informant interview and observation, while the secondary data (climate data 1989-2019) was collected from national meteorology agency and other sources. The data collected were analyzed using both qualitative and quantitative methods of data analysis. Accordingly, quantitative data generated from household survey analyzed using SPSS 21 version data editor. The rainfall variability was analyzed using coefficient of variability (CV). Besides, the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were used to detect the trend and magnitude of the change respectively. Additionally, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to characterize the drought incidence of an area. Furthermore, the study employed binary logistic regression model to identify the effects of the determinant factors of farmers' perception on and adaptation practices to climate change and variability in the study area. The study showed that the seasonal rainfall was highly variable. The analysis of MK test and Sen's Slope estimator result indicated that the annual rainfall has statistically significant declining trend with the magnitude of 96.5mm per decades. It also showed statistically declining trend at Belg at P-value of <0.05, with a declining magnitude of 26.2mm per decades. Statistically significant declining and increasing trend computation was recorded in April, and November with the Z-value of -1.97, 2.09, respectively and both at p-value less than 0.05. The SPI calculation confirmed that Woreda totally experienced 32 mild droughts, 12 moderate drought, 04 severe drought and 06 extreme drought episodes. Severe and extreme droughts affected large areal coverage. Besides, 97% of KII and FGD participants and 77.4% of the household survey participants perceived climate change and variability, particularly, increase in temperature, decrease in rainfall, occurrences of frequent drought and flood events. Moreover, the binary logistic regression model result showed that access to weather information, access to extension, access to credit, and sex have statistically strong significant effect on farmers perception at 0.01, whereas family size, HH land holding size, and farm experience have significant effect on farmers perception at 0.05. Additionally the above variables have significant effect on the adoption of adaptation strategies. Furthermore, the this study revealed that SWC activities: terracing, reforestation and areal closure, water harvesting, use of selected seeds, grow early maturing and drought resistant varieties etc were the main adaptation strategies practiced in the area. Finally, the study recommended awareness creation, strong weather forecasting institution establishment, capacitate farmers through training and provide support of new technologies.