Evaluating Vietnam Power Sector: An Analysis Using OSeMOSYS (2025–2050)

This report evaluates Vietnam's national Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8), utilizing the Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) to analyze potential development pathways for the nation's power sector through 2050. The main objective of this study is a comparative assessment of three scenarios designed to explore the trade-offs between policy pathways: Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, a market-driven Carbon Pricing (CAP) scenario, and a target-driven capacity under the national Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8). The CAP scenario presents the most economically efficient transition, achieving emissions reductions at the lowest overall system cost. In contrast, the PDP8 scenario achieves the fastest and most certain decarbonization, aligning most closely to reach national net-zero goals, but at the highest upfront investment cost. The core trade-off is between the economic efficiency of market mechanisms and the practical investment. Recommendations emphasize that a balanced approach combining strategic state direction with market signals will be necessary to secure an affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy future for Vietnam.