Modeling Decarbonization Pathways in the Power Sector using OSeMOSYS : The case of Pakistan

Pakistan has committed to ambitious climate targets, including a 25% reduction in projected emissions by 2030 (conditional) and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. This report explores the challenges and opportunities in achieving these goals amidst structural energy sector issues. Using the OSeMOSYS modelling framework, three scenarios were evaluated: Business-As-Usual (BAU), Government Target (GT), and Net-Zero (NZ). The analysis focuses on the evolution of Pakistan's power mix and the infrastructure and investment requirements for a full decarbonization pathway. Power generation is projected to increase substantially across all scenarios to meet growing economic and population demands. The GT and NZ scenarios show a dramatic shift towards renewable sources. In the NZ scenario, solar, and wind power dominate the energy mix, complemented by hydro and nuclear for grid stability. Emissions in the BAU scenario continue to rise, whereas the GT and NZ scenarios achieve significant reductions, aligning with national climate targets. The total discounted system cost for the NZ scenario is estimated at approximately US$480 billion by 2050, significantly higher than the BAU scenario. This highlights the substantial investment required to overhaul the grid, deploy renewable capacity, and develop new technologies for reducing emissions. Future work should focus on refining data inputs, assessing grid flexibility, and modelling energy storage solutions more specifically. Key messages from this study underscore the need for an unprecedented expansion of renewable electricity generation and installed capacity. Strategic policy design, massive technology investments, and a diversified, resilient energy portfolio are crucial for a successful transition to a decarbonized power sector in Pakistan.