Transition Pathways for India's Energy Sector: Balancing Development, Decarbonization and Dispatchability

India, as the world’s third-largest electricity producer, consumer, and carbon emitter, faces the formidable challenge of balancing rising energy demand with the imperative of decarbonization in line with its net-zero commitment by 2070. This study evaluates three pathways—Business-as-Usual (BAU), Emission Reduction Scenario (ERS), and Deep Decarbonization & Dispatchability Scenario (D3S)—to assess how different strategies can shape India’s energy future. The scenarios highlight critical trade-offs between emissions reduction, system reliability, and financial investments, offering valuable insights for policymakers navigating India’s energy transition. In the BAU case, coal maintains nearly 70 percent of generation through 2050, with only modest growth in renewables. Emissions remain high, risking India becoming the world’s second-largest emitter after China. Annualized investments reach USD 366 billion (8.9 percent of GDP). While BAU supports energy access, it locks India into a carbon-intensive future. ERS achieves a 60 percent emissions reduction by 2050, driven by large-scale solar and wind, full electrification of rail transport, and the phase-out of coal, gas, and diesel by 2040. However, renewable resource saturation poses long-term challenges. Investment requirements rise modestly to USD 378 billion (9.2 percent of GDP). D3S targets 90 percent emissions cut by 2050. It mandates 20 percent dispatchable capacity from nuclear, hydro, and biomass, and incorporates carbon capture technologies. Full electrification of road transport and residential sectors by 2045 drastically lowers fossil fuel use. This scenario requires USD 579 billion annually (14.1 percent of GDP) but offers the most climate-aligned and reliable pathway. Taken together, the scenarios underscore the urgency of policy action. BAU is unsustainable, ERS provides a viable but limited transition, and D3S, though costly, is essential to achieve long-term climate goals while maintaining grid reliability. Policymakers must accelerate renewable expansion, scale nuclear and CCS, strengthen grid flexibility, and promote widespread electrification to ensure India’s secure, low-carbon energy future.