Modelling Decarbonization Pathways in the Power Sector of Fiji

Fiji’s power sector is at a pivotal stage in its transition from heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels toward renewable energy. The country’s total final energy consumption is modest at around 18 PJ, yet its vulnerability is amplified by over 85% reliance on petroleum imports. Current electricity generation, about 1.0 TWh annually, is supplied primarily by hydropower (50–55%) and diesel (35–40%), with solar and wind making up only 5–10%. This dependence on hydro introduces significant risks, as droughts increase reliance on costly and insecure diesel imports, while extreme weather events frequently damage infrastructure. The Energy Modelling Platform Asia Pacific (EMP-APAC) examined two decarbonization scenarios: the Renewable Transition (RT) and the Resilient Renewable Transition (RRT). Both target a full diesel phase-out by 2035 and a 100% renewable energy system. RT relies on hydro, solar, and biomass expansion, while RRT emphasizes resilience through a more balanced portfolio of solar, biomass, and hydro to hedge against climate variability. Results indicate that both pathways require substantial upfront investment in renewables, grid infrastructure, and resilience measures. However, the long-term benefits include reduced emissions, fuel import savings, energy security, and climate resilience. Strategic planning, investment, and policy alignment will be critical for Fiji’s energy transition success.