Does artificial intelligence affect manufacturing employment? Based on a robot applications perspective

Purpose The new round of technological innovation will not only profoundly change national production and lifestyles but also affect future employment. Design/methodology/approach In this study, robot data are mapped to industry-level data from Chinese provinces, and the dataset is analyzed using two-way fixed effects, threshold regression and spatial Durbin models. Findings The results indicate that robot application has a significant adverse effect on manufacturing employment in China, with a 2.80% decrease in manufacturing employment for every 10% increase in robot application levels. Second, the heterogeneity analysis reveals that robot application significantly negatively affects the Eastern and Central regions as well as the sub-sectors of the manufacturing industry. The higher the level of economic development and robot application in a region, the more pronounced the employment substitution effect. Third, improvements to the human capital level and labor protection weaken the negative impact of the robot adoption level on manufacturing employment. Fourth, robot application not only suppresses local manufacturing employment but also has negative spillover effects on manufacturing employment in neighboring provinces. Originality/value This study helps to scientifically assess the overall effect of “machine for human” in China’s manufacturing employment market and provide references for decision-making in promoting the development of AI technology and ensuring employment stability.