Pathways for Green Transformation in the Manufacturing Sector under the Dual-Carbon Goals: An Empirical Analysis of the Steel and Chemical Industries in Jiangsu Province

Under the strategic framework of China’s dual-carbon goals, the manufacturing sector—being a major source of energy consumption and carbon emissions—faces increasing pressure to improve the efficiency of its green transformation. Jiangsu Province, as a leading manufacturing region, hosts large-scale high-energy-consuming industries, making it imperative to assess efficiency scientifically to identify transformation gaps and design differentiated pathways. This study focuses on three representative sectors: chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling. Using cross-sectional data from 2023, a “two-input–one-output” framework is applied, with total assets and average employment as inputs and operating revenue as output. Efficiency is measured via DEA models (CCR and BCC), and a robustness check based on labor-only input is conducted. The results show that efficiency varies significantly across sectors. Ferrous and non-ferrous metal industries generally lie on the DEA frontier, while the chemical sector exhibits low efficiency and considerable input redundancy. The inefficiency in the chemical sector is mainly attributable to technical and managerial limitations rather than scale constraints. Efficiency sensitivity differs by input perspective: the chemical sector’s disadvantage is more pronounced in labor terms, whereas the non-ferrous metal sector relies on the capital–labor combination effect. Accordingly, green transformation pathways should be sector-specific: the chemical sector should prioritize process optimization and technological innovation, while the ferrous and non-ferrous metal sectors should focus on deep decarbonization technologies and input-structure optimization while sustaining high efficiency. This study contributes by empirically revealing the efficiency heterogeneity of high-energy-consuming industries under dual-carbon constraints, clarifying the sources of inefficiency, and providing an evidence-based reference for policy-making, enterprise-level green transformation, and targeted financial support.