Migration as Adaptation: Place-Based Vulnerability Near the Drying Great Salt Lake

The drying of the Great Salt Lake presents a complex and evolving threat to Utah residents, with wide-ranging environmental, economic, and health implications. This study explores the individual and structural factors impacting Utahns' ability to utilize migration as a form of adaptive capacity in response to these threats, using mobility justice and cumulative advantage and disadvantage theory as guiding frameworks. Drawing on survey data, a multilevel logistic regression model identifies key structural factors, including age, income, and gender, that influence perceived migration ability. Additionally, a 2x2 typology categorizes distinct profiles of vulnerability to the Great Salt Lake based on different variables indicating capacity to migrate or adapt in place. Individuals in the most vulnerable group are disproportionately young, low-income women without a college degree. Based on these findings, the study proposes targeted planning and policy interventions to support both mobility and in-place adaptation. By integrating theoretical and empirical insights, this work contributes to both academic literature and policy discourse, expanding understanding of mobility inequality and vulnerability in the context of the Great Salt Lake.