Delivery Capability as a Key Driver of PPP Geothermal Energy Project Completion: Evidence from Kenya

Purpose: This study examines how delivery capability, which encompasses technical expertise, project governance and management practices, and organizational agility, influences the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) geothermal energy project completion outcomes in Kenya. It is assumed that there is no PPP without either government support or private sector participation; rather, the issue of utmost research interest would be their effectiveness and or optimization. The current research, therefore, aims to address critical knowledge and research gaps identified in existing literature regarding the operational determinants of PPP project completion in the renewable energy sector, particularly geothermal, in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region. Case Study: The geothermal industry in Kenya serves as a suitable choice for the case study, since the country is globally recognized as a leading geothermal energy developer in Africa. Also, there is published literature on its geothermal evolution story traceable to the 1980s. Research Philosophy, Design and Methodology: Relying on both the positivist and pragmatic research philosophies, mixed methods were used to undertake a cross-sectional census survey of 48 PPP geothermal energy projects licensed in Kenya as of June 2023. A structured questionnaire was used to collect project data from project managers (leaders) working for both private and public sector developers. Responses were measured using an Agree-Disagree (A-D) Likert scale across the main study themes. A key informant interview guide was used to gather qualitative insights from relevant geothermal industry actors, including government officials, private investors, development financing institutions, civil society, academic and other subject matter experts. A pilot study was conducted on a PPP wind power project in Kenya. Quantitative project completion metrics were analyzed, along with qualitative insights, to assess the relative influence of delivery capability on PPP financing structure and project completion. A combination of tools was used to analyze descriptive, inferential and qualitative data sets, culminating in data triangulation. Key Findings and Conclusion: The study reveals that delivery capability emerges as the most influential predictor of project completion, accounting for approximately 61% of the variance in successful PPP project completion outcomes; the overall model yielded a strong correlation of R-squared (R2) of 0.663 and an adjusted R2 of 0.652. Its effect substantially outweighs that of project financing mechanisms (40%), policy and regulatory effectiveness (26%), and environmental and other contextual factors (24%). For instance, projects with strong technical expertise demonstrated 25% faster approvals and 18% fewer completion delays. Besides, projects with robust governance structures and agile project management practices reduced contract period variations and improved budget adherence by 22%. The mediation analysis depicted similar results; this is convincing evidence that delivery capability significantly affects PPP geothermal project completion. Novel Contributions: This research represents the first empirical study to establish the direct link between delivery capability, financing structure and geothermal PPP project completion outcomes in the SSA region. The lessons from Kenya provide policymakers with a scientific basis to prioritize bidder competency assessments in PPP procurement processes, while offering investors a framework for strategic capacity-building and project delivery investments. The study findings validate the relevance of the Dynamic Capability theory in renewable energy PPP project management practice; it outlines practical recommendations for geothermal energy development in emerging markets such as Kenya. Opportunities for Further Research: Replicating a similar research in other country contexts for better generalizability is recommended. Future scholarly work exploring the effect of emerging technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and blockchain supply chain solutions, on PPP project delivery capability could provide valuable insights into how digital transformation might reshape the geothermal PPP project life cycle.