Cosmological Catastrophe Revisited: Energy–Probability Balance as a Natural Cutoff

This work revisits the long-standing cosmological constant catastrophe — the mismatch of up to 120 orders of magnitude between quantum field theory estimates of vacuum energy and the observed dark energy density. We argue that this divergence arises from summing bare energy contributions without considering the probability of their realization at the cosmic horizon. By introducing the principle of energy–probability balance, where each degree of freedom contributes not its bare energy but a probability-weighted value, we obtain a natural cutoff at the Planck scale. This approach removes the enormous discrepancy and shows that the vacuum energy density scales naturally with the cosmic expansion rate, without the need for additional assumptions. The article provides detailed reasoning, discusses implications for cosmology, and connects the results with existing theoretical frameworks.