Do flying birds return to their nests? Factors influencing rural youths’ return behaviour: mediating effect of rural attraction

Purpose Rural hollowing poses significant challenges to China’s sustainable development, making the return and retention of rural youth critical for revitalisation. This study investigates the determinants of rural youths’ return behaviour through the integrated lens of motivation, opportunity and ability, while assessing the mediating role of rural attraction and the moderating effect of social capital. Design/methodology/approach Combining the Delphi method with a literature review, key factors were identified and modelled. Survey data from 485 rural youth across three Jiangsu Province cities were collected via probability proportional sampling. Multivariate logistic regression, mediation analysis and moderation models were employed to validate the framework. Findings Motivation emerged as the strongest predictor of return behaviour, followed by opportunity. Surprisingly, ability negatively influenced long-term retention. Rural attraction partially mediated these relationships, buffering ability’s adverse effects, while social capital weakened rural attraction’s influence. Gender heterogeneity revealed motivation’s stronger impact on females. Originality/value This study advances rural migration theory by integrating MOA with rural attraction and social capital, offering the first typological analysis of Chinese youth return behaviour. The findings provide evidence-based strategies for policymakers to tailor rural revitalisation initiatives, addressing motivation-driven female retention and opportunity–ability mismatches.