Impact of Climate Change on Food and Human Security in Nigeria

This research explores the complex role of climate change in food and human security in Nigeria with the aim of establishing how environmental degradation, climate, and agricultural vulnerability converge to enhance country food systems and human health. With an unwavering analytical framework across seconded data for 2010-2024, the research assesses three key measures of climate change: temperature variability (extreme heat events, seasonal temperature changes, drought frequency), precipitation patterns (rainfall irregularity, flooding incidents, seasonal shifts), and extreme weather events (cyclones, desertification, soil degradation) and how their effects impact food security outcomes and human security aspects. The study utilized Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Food and Agriculture Organization, and National Bureau of Statistics time-series data and utilized trend analysis via Vector Error Correction Modeling (VECM) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methods. The findings indicate strong negative associations between the climate change drivers and food security outcomes, with temperature variability bearing the strongest negative relationship (β = -0.587, p < 0.001), followed by weather extremity (β = -0.523, p < 0.001), and precipitation pattern changes (β = -0.467, p < 0.001). The climate change drivers combined explained 68.4% of the variance in food security degradation (R² = 0.684). Regional analysis supported differential effects across Nigeria's six geopolitical regions, with the northern parts of the country worst affected by temperature trends and southern parts most stressed by precipitation trends. The study confirms Climate Vulnerability Theory while enumerating cascading impacts of environmental degradation on agricultural productivity, economic stability, and social solidarity in sub-Saharan African settings. The study solidifies climate change as a salient threat multiplier that needs to be addressed by way of policy intervention and adaptive measures as a question of utmost urgency. The research provides prescriptive knowledge in the form of climate-resilient farming practices, early warning systems, diversified production systems, and integrated adaptation policies that contribute significantly to climate security literature and offer tangible advice on enhancing food system resilience in Nigeria.