IAM_COMPACT_D5.7_Behaviour_social_and_disruptive_innovation

Intended to reflect the IAM COMPACT project’s research efforts in issues relating to behavioural, societal, and disruptive innovation, this deliverable first applies hindcasting using the D-EXPANSE model across 31 European countries, revealing that real-world electricity transitions deviate from cost-optimal scenarios by 44–60%, far exceeding the commonly assumed 10–20% slack in Modelling to Generate Alternatives, highlighting the need for empirically grounded, country-specific slack values. It then shows that incorporating geopolitical risks into the D-EXPANSE electricity system model improved hindcasting accuracy of the technology mix for many European countries—especially larger ones—by better reflecting real-world diversification toward renewables, though disentangling geopolitical effects from broader societal factors remains a key challenge for future research. The deliverable then shows that, while climate finance has reached record levels, it remains vastly insufficient, inequitably distributed, and skewed toward mitigation over adaptation, with persistent gaps in transparency, definitions, and governance. Without structural reforms to align finance with local priorities, enhance access, and ensure accountability, global climate goals risk being undermined by continued political inertia and systemic inequities. Finally, it investigates the impact of lifestyle changes in the EU-27, particularly in mobility, housing, and diets, finding that these can reduce emissions by 10–25%, offering significant mitigation potential even under ambitious policy scenarios, with generally beneficial cost impacts, though future implementation depends on addressing social acceptance and harmonising data inconsistencies across models.