RAINFALL TRENDS, PATTERNS, AND VARIABILITY IN THE KAINJI LAKE BASIN, NIGERIA

Rainfall in Nigeria exhibits significant temporal and spatial variability, a situation exacerbated by climate change. This study analyzed rainfall trends and patterns in the Kainji Lake Basin between 1991 and 2020 using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Coefficient of Variability statistical tools. Daily rainfall data spanning 30 years were analyzed to detect temporal trends and decadal variations. Results indicate a downward trend in total rainfall over the study period, with the SPI revealing a gradual decadal decline. These findings highlight increasing vulnerability to meteorological droughts in the region. The study recommends the establishment of additional weather observatories to improve climatic data coverage, addressing the limitation posed by reliance on a single synoptic station. Furthermore, mitigation and adaptation strategies should be prioritized to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on rainfall-dependent sectors in the Kainji Lake Basin.