Program sustainability and property right factors influencing farmers' self-predicted post-program land investment behavior - Evidence from land enrolled in the Sloping Land Conversion Program in China

Based on the research data of farmers in Shaanxi and Guizhou provinces, the Double hurdle model is used to analyze the impact of forestland tenure on farmers' SLCPL investment behavior. The results show: (1) In terms of property rights integrity, The right of use significantly positively stimulates the possibility and level of farmers' investment, the mortgage significantly positively stimulates the possibility of farmers' investment in the SLCPL, the transfer right will reduce the possibility of farmers' investment, and the impact of the income right on the investment behavior of farmers is not significant. (2) In terms of security of property rights, the higher the probability of the expected conversion of the SLCPL into farmland in the future, the higher the probability of the farmers investing in SLCPL. The impact of expropriation risk and adjustment risk expectation on the investment behavior of farmers' SLCPL is not significant. (3) There are differences in the effects of forestland property rights on the investment behavior of farmers' SLCPL in different forest types, among which the integrity of property rights has a more significant impact on the investment behavior of farmers with economic forest, and the security of property rights has a more significant impact on the investment behavior of farmers with ecological forest. Accordingly, it is recommended that the management department deepen the reform of collective forest rights in the areas where the Sloping Land Conversion Program is implemented, carry out timely changes in the attributes of land types and the confirmation and issuance of certificates, appropriately relax the constraints on logging and forestry production and management of SLCPL, and raise the level of farmers' awareness of the integrity and security of property rights in SLCPL. • This is a study that explores the sustainability of PES program from the perspective of forestland property rights. • When the property rights are more integrate and secure, the farmers are more likely to invest in the land, and the PES program is more sustainable. • The integrity of property rights has a more significant impact on the investment behavior of farmers with economic forest. • The security of property rights has a more significant impact on the investment behavior of farmers with ecological forest. • The findings offer significant insights for policy and the broader understanding of PES program sustainability.