Protectionist Trends in Industrial Policy amid a Changing Global Order

The new global trend of economic development – self-sufficiency and national autarky – is examined. The reasons and features of the transition to a self-sufficient industrial policy are identified in the context of the geopolitical fragmentation of the global economy and intensifying competition among major economies for technological leadership. Growing uncertainty and unpredictability in modern economic development, which are unacceptable for long-term investments, also drive this strategy. It is shown that protectionist policies and sanctions have had a serious impact on world trade, becoming a driver of the reorientation of trade flows between global economic leaders – the United States and China. However, this situation is likely to worsen due to the escalation of trade wars, which began with a sharp increase in US import tariffs on goods from more than 180 countries in April 2025 and provoked a strong response from China. This may lead to the breakdown of existing value chains and a global recession, significantly increasing the traditional costs of a self-sufficient industrial policy due to rising of production costs, dispersion and inefficient distribution of financial and material resources, accelerating of inflation, and a decline in the technological level and quality of goods. It is concluded that the trend toward national autonomy and self-sufficient industrial policy in the context of a changing world order may prove to be an extremely difficult task not only for the main players, but also for many other participants in the global economy.