Working Assumptions:The Fate of the UK Government’s ‘Pathways to Work’ Agenda

This paper examines the turbulent journey of the UK Labour Government's 'Pathways to Work' agenda, from its initial proposal in the March 2025 green paper to the significantly scaled-back Universal Credit Bill that emerged following sustained parliamentary opposition. The original Green Paper proposed wide-ranging and (in part) controversial reforms across Personal Independence Payment (PIP), Universal Credit (UC), and other elements of the social security system, including the abolition of the Work Capability Assessment. While the broad aims of improving living standards and labour market participation among people with long-term health conditions or disabilities were welcomed, the proposed means (particularly changes to PIP eligibility) faced fierce criticism from disability charities, anti-poverty organisations, and welfare rights groups. This paper analyses what remains of the government's original proposals in the current Universal Credit Bill and explores what this reveals about the future direction of health-related benefits and the UK's social security system more generally. The analysis situates these developments within the longer-term evolution of disability benefit policy and considers the implications.