КРИЗА ПОЛІТИКИ СТРИМУВАННЯ У СУЧАСНИХ УМОВАХ ПОСТБІПОЛЯРНОГО СВІТУ

Abstract: The purpose of the article is to analyze the problems of implementing the policy of deterrence in the modern conditions of the post-bipolar world. Based on the analysis, it is concluded that one of the problems of deterrence in the modern world is the problem of hybrid wars, where the aggressor is not always clearly identified. Also, the unpredictability of the situation increases the creation of situational, sometimes unexpected, formed or unformed alliances, when in the conflict of stronger and weaker actors, an outsider strong actor also supports a stronger political player, which creates a significant imbalance of forces (for example, attempts to “flirt” the United States with Russia during the second cadence of Donald Trump, when instead of supporting the affected party, that is, Ukraine, additional pressure is exerted on it). It is stated that the means of non-military, that is, economic, political, cultural and other deterrence can be effective when applied to weaker actors, and not to world leaders, who have more opportunities, firstly, to ignore, and secondly, to circumvent such means (in particular, this clearly illustrates the circumvention of economic sanctions by Russia). The thesis about a new round of proliferation of nuclear weapons in the world is supported and further justified. The lesson of this was recent history, in particular, Russia's aggression against Ukraine. The result was the realization that perhaps the only means of protecting and ensuring the balance of power is the presence of nuclear weapons in the state and the developed infrastructure for their maintenance and launch. In addition, the lessons of recent history have been that in the modern world, deterrence is often directed at the party affected by aggression (Ukraine, Israel). It’s concluded that the most effective means of deterrence in today's post-bipolar world are either the presence of nuclear weapons in the state, or broad stable alliances of weaker players (an example of which is the European Union).