Residential Property Price Index in Ireland: An Econometric Analysis of Regional and Macroeconomic Drivers

This study examines the dynamics of Ireland’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) from 2005 to 2023, focusing on the combined influence of regional and macroeconomic drivers. Using advanced econometric models, including ARIMA and ARIMAX, the research evaluates how the Dublin City Index, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Consumer Price Index (CPI) affect housing market trends. The analysis confirms Dublin’s outsized role in shaping national property price movements and highlights GDP as a significant predictor of demand. CPI emerges as a more complex factor, reflecting both affordability constraints and supply-side costs. The findings emphasize the need for regionally balanced housing policies and data-driven interventions to ensure stability in Ireland’s housing market. Recommendations include extending econometric models with additional variables, such as interest rates and tax policies, and exploring machine learning approaches to improve forecasting accuracy.