OurMED D3.2 Report on the System Dynamics Simulation Model. Version 1.2

Deliverable 3.2 (D3.2) presents the system dynamics model as an output of Task 3.2: Systems thinking and modeling. Task 3.2 of the OurMED Project is dedicated to the development of a system dynamics model that integrates socio-economic and hydrological processes. This task builds on the outcomes of Task 3.1, utilizing insights into governance structures, identified problems and conflicts to inform the design of a conceptual model. Based on the conceptual model, a computer simulation model is developed to represent the dynamic interactions between human and environmental systems. The model incorporates key socio-economic elements, including water transfer decisions, farmers’ crop choices, and resulting land-use changes, alongside hydrological components such as groundwater extraction and recharge, surface water flows, evaporation processes, and crop growth dynamics. This deliverable outlines the applied methodology, provides a detailed description of the model structure and associated formulations, and presents simulation results.