AN INVESTIGATION OF THE DRIVERS OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OUTPUT IN NIGERIA

This study examined the impact of manufacturing value added as proxy for industrialization, net migration as proxy for rural-urban migration, carbon dioxide emission as proxy for climate change, agricultural capital expenditure and agricultural recurrent expenditure all as independent variables on agricultural output as dependent variable. The study used the ARDL estimation technique and its Bounds test on data covering the period of 1981 to 2018. The Bounds test revealed the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables and all the independent variables have the correct sign but turned out statistically insignificant. The lack of proper implementation of agricultural capital and recurrent expenditures is pointed to in this study as a reason for their insignificant impact. The short-run results revealed that the second period lag of carbon dioxide emission has a statistically significant impact on agricultural output pointing to the negative impact of climate change on the dependent variable. The short-run results further revealed that the current value and the second period lag of agricultural capital expenditure have a positive statistically significant impact on the dependent variable prompting the recommendation that government should provide more capital equipment for mechanized agriculture and should earmark policies to ensure the sustainability of agricultural infrastructure