D6.4 Final Report on Collaborative Systems Analysis and DAPP-MR

This report presents findings on two key aspects of developing forward-looking DRMpathways: (1) the development of a flexible, generic approach to collaborative systemsanalysis; and (2) the development of Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi-Risk(DAPP-MR) – the proposed, staged, iterative analytical process to facilitate theassessment of multiple possible pathways to adapt to current and future multi-riskchallenges. Both of the developed approaches are designed to complement the MYRIADEUframework for systemic multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management. Collaborative systems analysis approach The generic approach for collaborative systems analysis guides decision-makers andpolicymakers to describe DRM decision-making contexts. This description serves as thefoundation for the development of forward-looking DRM pathways.All five pilots have adapted the approach to their particular problem contexts and appliedvarious tools to describe these together with stakeholders. The tools most used by thepilots included the DPSIR framework, causal relationship diagrams, storyline approaches,and interaction matrices. The storyline approach in particular was enthusiasticallyadopted by all the pilots and has proven to be both an effective and flexible tool wellreceivedby stakeholders. Collaborative systems analysis relies on sufficient time beingallocated to both prepare and implement these activities, as well as strong and effectivefacilitation to lead discussions and help to synthesise system complexities forstakeholders. DAPP-MR Building on the existing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach, DAPP-MRguides the assessment and evaluation of multiple adaptation pathways to current andfuture multi-risk challenges. The approach systematically considers three key themesrelevant to the design of multi-risk DRM pathways: (1) the effects of multiple, interactinghazards; (2) the dynamics and interdependencies of sectors; and (3) the trade-offs andsynergies of DRM policy options across different sectors and different spatial andtemporal scales. It does so by staging the analysis to gradually build up problemcomplexity. DAPP-MR has been applied in a synthetic multi-risk case study to assess its utility. Theresults highlight the complexity of assessing the effectiveness of flood and drought riskreduction measures, particularly in the context of multi-hazard interactions. However, thestaged approach helps to illuminate pathways that remain valid under increasingcomplexity. There remains a crucial gap in visualising and communicating the relativeperformance and interaction effects of different pathways across scenario ensembles.Ongoing research to address this gap suggests the use of various informationvisualisation methods may facilitate the exploration, sensemaking, and communication ofdata to support decision-making processes. DAPP-MR has also been applied qualitatively across four MYRIAD-EU pilot regions: theCanary Islands, the Danube Region, the North Sea, and Scandinavia. It was used to supportthe development of forward-looking integrated, adaptive DRM strategies. In each pilot,initial system understanding was built from sectoral perspectives, followed by thedevelopment of sectoral and cross-sectoral pathways. The completed applicationsdemonstrate how DAPP-MR facilitates stakeholder engagement and offer valuableadditional insights in DRM decision-making processes. However, the lack of appropriatetoolsets to explore and manage the complexity qualitatively was identified as one criticalchallenge in need of future attention.