СВІТОВА ЕКОНОМІЧА КРИЗА 2.0: ОСОБЛИВОСТІ ТА МОЖЛИВІ СЦЕНАРІЇ

This article explores the prerequisites for the emergence of a potential global economic crisis, tentatively defined as “Crisis 2.0.” The aim of the research is to provide a comprehensive examination of the threats to the global economy in the current phase and to construct models of event development that allow for an assessment of the likelihood of various scenarios for the future economic crisis and its consequences for individual countries, particularly Ukraine. The methodological foundation of the study comprises general scientific and specialized methods: analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, logical methods, empirical and comparative analysis, as well as a systems approach, which ensures a comprehensive view of the problem. The study analyzes current threats that contribute to the instability of the global economy: the rising debt burden of leading countries, conflicting monetary policies of central banks, energy transformations, inflationary shocks, and geopolitical conflicts, identifying the interconnections among these factors and their ability to mutually reinforce crisis phenomena. To understand the scale and potential consequences of Crisis 2.0, three main scenarios of its development are characterized: a scenario of mild, prolonged recession; a pessimistic variant with a sharp market collapse and deep social destabilization; and an optimistic scenario of a controlled global reset, each evaluated based on potential consequences, advantages, and threats to national economies. Particular attention is paid to the impact of a possible global crisis in Ukraine, especially through reduced external support, challenges to exports, rising energy costs, and decreased investment attractiveness. At the same time, potential opportunities for economic reset are outlined, particularly in the development of the IT sector, defense industry, and attraction of new production facilities. The results of the research can be used for developing anti-crisis strategies for national development, improving macroeconomic stability policies, enhancing the resilience of economies to external shocks, and designing a new architecture for economic security.