Environmental and Economic Drivers of Transport CO₂ Emissions: Insights from Econometric Modeling in the Global Logistics Sector

As a critical enabler of global trade and economic integration, the logistics sector has emerged as both a driver of development and a growing source of transport-related CO₂ emissions. While environmental technologies and structural reforms are increasingly prioritized in sustainability agendas, their combined impact on logistics performance and carbon intensity remains underexamined. This study investigates the determinants of logistics performance and transport CO₂ emissions across major logistics-performing economies from 2007 to 2023. A balanced panel of 1,105 observations is compiled using internationally recognized indicators, with unit root and cointegration tests employed to ensure data stability and long-run associations. A robust econometric framework combining Two-Step System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), Quantile Regression (QR), and Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) is implemented to address endogeneity, heterogeneity, and distributional variation. The results show that environmental technologies, urbanization, governance quality, and human development positively influence logistics performance across different quantiles, while employment and capital formation display diminishing or adverse effects at higher levels. Furthermore, logistics efficiency is positively linked to transport-sector CO₂ emissions and, in some cases, inversely related to economic growth, suggesting a carbon-intensive trajectory in logistics-driven economies. These findings offer important insights into the trade-offs between logistics expansion and environmental sustainability. The study contributes to the evolving literature on sustainable logistics by highlighting the distributional effects of environmental and structural drivers and presents evidence to guide future policymaking focused on low-carbon logistics infrastructure and green innovation integration.