Forecasting the demand for scarce skills, 2001-2006

This chapter describes a study of the demand for high-level human resources for the period 2001-2006, and forecasts the number of new positions arising and the replacement demand over the period. The research uses a labour-demand model to estimate the number of new positions that will arise as the result of industrial growth. The authors show that the demand for engineers, natural scientists and computer-related professionals will be strong (i.e. more than 2 per cent) reflecting the increasing use of new and more sophisticated technology in all spheres of life. At the same time, the continued fiscal restraint by government will limit increases in professional employment in the public sector, with educators and lecturers showing no growth, and medical practitioners and nurses showing only 1 per cent growth each. Nevertheless, replacement demand should be strong, as the effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic escalates and adds to the vacancies created by retirements, emigration and other causes of mortality.